Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua is positioning himself to shape a joint opposition lineup against President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election, banking on Mt Kenya votes to challenge the incumbent.
Whether his role is agreed upon or self-appointed remains contested, but his calculations could make him king, determine who becomes king or, if they fail, strengthen President Ruto’s re-election prospects.
“If there exists the remotest possibility that it is doable, then we cannot dismiss it. Politics being the art of the possible, all dreams are valid,” Manyora said.
Gachagua’s strategy rests on the assumption that Mt Kenya is the country’s biggest voting bloc and that he controls its loyalty. He says his Wamunyoro village home helped shape Dr Ruto’s 2022 presidential victory.
“Ask him to deny it. He visited my home countless times and my wife cooked and prayed for him,” Gachagua said.
DCP party Leader Rigathi Gachagua met with Linda Mwananchi Party leb by leader Edwin Sifuna at his Wamunyoro residence.
Photo credit: Pool
Debate has intensified since Gachagua returned from the US on October 20, after spending more than 50 days there, and met Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna at Wamunyoro.
His inner circle is advancing the view that the influential opposition principals are himself, Mr Sifuna and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
According to DCP chair of Eminent Persons Maina Kamanda, “only the three have the ability to shake the political terrain and mobilise numbers”.
But the arithmetic is risky, and a miscalculation could leave Mr Gachagua blamed for undermining the opposition’s campaign to remove President Ruto.
Other principals in the United Opposition include Fred Matiang’i, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa and Justin Muturi, as well as Boniface Mwangi, David Maraga, Jimmi Wanjigi and Okoiti Omtatah. According to Wamunyoro insiders and a draft strategy seen by Nation, Gachagua’s calculations begin with the 7,176,141 votes that secured Dr Ruto the presidency in 2022.
Former Deputy President and DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua (left) Jubilee Party Deputy Leader Fred Matiang’i and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at a past function in Nairobi.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
He believes he has taken about 3.5 million votes from Ruto’s Mt Kenya support base, reducing the President’s tally to approximately 3,676,141.
Adding those 3.5 million votes to Raila Odinga’s 6,942,930 gives 10,442,930, which Mr Gachagua cites as evidence that President Ruto can be defeated.
“We should completely forget about Gachagua being a presidential candidate or running mate,” he said.
Mr Kiunjuri argues that if Gachagua is isolated because of his domineering attitude, he will be left with DCP supporters and Mt Kenya protest votes, giving President Ruto an easier path to a second term.
He says Ruto could attract about four million of Mr Odinga’s former voters and combine them with five million of his own to surpass nine million. Mt Kenya, he argues, has not entirely abandoned the President, while the opposition could garner about six million votes.
Political scientist John Okumu similarly warns that the calculations look favourable until Dr Ruto’s counter-strategy is considered.
“When Ruto settled on Odinga to stabilise his government after impeaching Gachagua, he was targeting about six million votes the late opposition leader had garnered outside Mt Kenya. He was targeting to acquire about 9.7 million voters, isolating Gachagua by making him an opposition leader with at least 2 million voters when he picked Prof Kithure Kindiki as DP,” Mr Okumu said.
Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma argues that Ruto will inherit Mr Odinga’s strongholds, since opposition to the government is concentrated partly in Mt Kenya.
“Our departed leader left us in broad-based government, and regime change is only a discussion for 2032,” he said.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya disputes that position, arguing that Ruto cannot count on Mr Odinga’s former political bases.
“Musyoka, with his two million votes, is out. Wamalwa, Babu Owino, Orengo... Sifuna are all out. If Ruto was banking on Mr Odinga’s bastions, about 5.5 million votes in them are gone. At best, he is working with a reality of garnering about 4 million votes nationally if he works harder,” Mr Natembeya said.
DCP party Leader Rigathi Gachagua met with Linda Mwananchi Party leader Edwin Sifuna at his Wamunyoro residence.
Photo credit: Pool
Analyst Festus Wangwe agrees that Gachagua, Sifuna and Musyoka currently command significant numbers.
“I tend to agree with DCP thinking that numbers for now are with Gachagua, Sifuna and Musyoka,” he said.
The Wamunyoro strategy document outlines five possible presidential ticket formulas. One pairs Mr Musyoka with Mr Sifuna as his deputy, balancing experience and youth. Another places Mr Sifuna at the top, with Mr Musyoka as his deputy, a formula considered capable of increasing turnout among younger voters nationally. A third option pairs Mr Sifuna with Gachagua as his deputy.
Political analyst Malila Munywoki says this could consolidate Mt Kenya support but face a national acceptance challenge amid fatigue with a perceived pattern in which Kalenjin and Agikuyu leaders hand each other the State House keys.
Another option pairs Gachagua with Mr Musyoka as his deputy. Mr Munywoki says this would face a similar acceptance challenge.
